In the January 2025 instalment of this quarterly series, Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association CEO Paul Everingham reflects on energy developments in 2024, the state of the energy transition in Asia (and beyond) and what he expects from the year to come.
How would you sum up the energy year just gone?
That’s a good question. It’s difficult to summarise with a single word or phrase because there is such a diversity of circumstances and outlooks. I think what 2024 has shown from an energy perspective is that global systems are still very much in flux, and nobody can say with certainty exactly what they will look like in 2030, let alone decades that will follow.
How we strike a balance between economic growth for emerging economies and progress on reducing emissions is still the biggest energy-related question that needs to be answered. This played out at COP29 in Baku and the conversation will continue at COP30 in Brazil. The intersection of aspirations and reality when it comes to energy and emissions is very complex and managing it will require a huge amount of collaboration from a very wide range of stakeholders.
We saw the by-products of these complexities reflected in 2024 in uncertain policy environments for two of Asia’s biggest gas suppliers. The United States is now the biggest exporter of LNG in the world. US gas has proven to be essential to global energy security over the past three years and continued growth of supply will be critical for emerging Asia’s ability to reduce coal consumption. But the final 11 months of 2024 saw the US gas industry operating under a ‘pause’ on LNG export approvals that cast significant doubt over future production. Meanwhile, Australia’s Federal Government released a Future Gas Strategy that highlighted the value of gas to domestic energy security and the importance of LNG exports to the energy systems of Asia. However, there are very real concerns from nations in Asia that attempts by Australia to address its own near and long-term gas supply challenges will come at the expense of these exports.
Let’s touch on those couple of issues in more detail – starting with the US. How do you view the situation there with an imminent change of administration?
President-elect Trump’s public statements about the oil and gas industry have been highly encouraging and well-received. The resumption of processing of LNG export applications will lead to continued investment in and development of major export facilities. These are projects that countries in Asia are relying on to help meet their future energy needs.
Looking at the situation in the longer term, it’s essential decision-makers in the US – whatever their political affiliation – fully understand the Asian energy landscape. Asia is the most coal-reliant region on the planet and use of coal in emerging economies continues to increase rapidly. Switching out coal for gas-fired power while continuing to invest in renewable energy offers the most realistic pathway for emerging Asia to maintain energy security while reducing emissions. But this will require huge volumes of LNG imports over the next few decades because Asia simply doesn’t have the required regional gas resources.
The Wood Mackenzie Asia LNG Demand Study that was released in December 2024 forecasts demand for LNG in Asia will nearly double between now and 2050, reaching 510 million tonnes per annum. While demand from some existing importers – notably Japan and Korea – is expected to decline slowly after 2030, it will increase significantly in South and Southeast Asia.
There is a huge opportunity for the US gas industry and the incoming Trump Administration to ensure not just that emerging Asian nations have access to sufficient, affordable LNG but also that they can develop infrastructure to make best use of this supply. More US involvement in helping to fund and guide coal-to-gas switching in Asia would be welcomed by stakeholders in the region.
And how about Australia?
As I mentioned earlier, there’s a lot about the Future Gas Strategy that’s positive, including the acknowledgement of Asia’s future energy needs. But nothing within it is set in stone and stakeholders in Asia are concerned that Australia’s own pressing requirements for gas will mean there is less available for export.
Australia has ample gas resources that can be developed to meet domestic needs and those of its trading partners. Nations in Asia want to buy Australian gas and it is very likely that Asian stakeholders will have an interest in investing in the projects that will produce this gas, just as they have done for the past 40 years. But they need positive signals from policy makers that Australia will continue to be a reliable source of LNG supply over coming decades.
It’s not only existing customers like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and China that are interested in Australian gas. Countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam offer new markets for Australian LNG. These are fast-growing economies with ambitions to add more gas-fired power to reduce their reliance on coal. Being able to access both Australian and US LNG supply would very much help them to reduce emissions from their power sectors.
What are some of the energy trends that you are expecting to see play out in 2025?
I do feel there is an evolving pragmatism about the importance of energy security and the value of natural gas to the energy transition. It’s not all plain sailing but I think many attitudes towards energy and emissions are gradually becoming more realistic. And the reality is that natural gas offers Asia a much cleaner-burning alternative to coal that provides reliability that renewable generation is not yet able to match. Gas is the perfect fuel to drive the transition.
Something I’m excited to see in 2025 is the continued development of cross-border CCS value chains in Asia Pacific. CCS can be a true game-changer for reducing emissions in our region, for power generation and also key industrial processes that are otherwise hard to abate. But because of the geographical separation between major emissions sources and potential storage sites, cross-border agreements will be essential to unlocking the full potential of CCS in the region.
ANGEA and its members believe the Cross-Border CCS Study we published late in 2024, and the framework for bilateral and commercial agreements outlined within it, can play a significant role in helping to accelerate the development of transboundary CCS projects. We are especially optimistic about bilateral cross-border CCS agreements and feel that some of them can really start to take shape over the next 12 months.
Speaking of the year ahead, what does 2025 hold in store for ANGEA?
The publication of our Cross-Border CCS Study is by no means the end of that work – we’re looking forward to the next phases of the project…watch this space! The same goes for project work we are progressing on the role of gas in Asia’s energy transition and progress on emissions reduction targets.
From a country perspective, we will be very active in both LNG supply and consumer nations. I expect Australia will be a strong focus for us throughout 2025 and we will again be engaging with energy stakeholders in the US. We aim to continue growing the productive relationships we have built in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia, and I’m particularly excited about 2025 engagements in the Philippines and Vietnam. These are two of Asia’s newest LNG-importing nations and ones where coal-to-gas switching can be enormously beneficial.
This year will be ANGEA’s fourth and also my third full year as CEO. I believe we have made strong in-roads in establishing ourselves as a trusted partner for countries and industries in Asia as they work towards a lower-carbon future. But there is much work still to be done in lifting ANGEA’s profile and awareness of our expertise and policy priorities, not just with energy stakeholders but in the wider public realm.
Paul Everingham was CEO of the Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA) from September 2022 to June 2026. ANGEA works with governments, industries and communities in Asia, providing affordable solutions that promote energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation.
