The last week of October saw three public statements that tie in strongly with Asia’s energy future.
The first – and most high-profile – came from Bill Gates ahead of COP30.
The founder of Microsoft often provides a pragmatic voice around the intersection of economics, energy, emissions, and human wellbeing. His latest Gates Notes article touches on each of these topics.
There’s a strong chance you’ve already read it or seen extracts from it. To summarise, Gates makes the case that the global quest to limit temperature rises has reached a tipping point, where sight has been lost of the biggest priority – improving people’s lives.
It’s a thoughtful, thought-provoking and wide-ranging piece that I would encourage people to read in full. Gates highlights the long-established correlation between energy use and economic advancement and argues that action on climate change should not be an at-any-cost proposition (particularly not at the expense of ensuring adequate funds are available to tackle poverty and disease).
The article calls attention to the unhelpful situation where lower-income countries are denied access to reliable electricity because multilateral lenders have taken an ideological stance against financing fossil fuel projects. It acknowledges the essential nature of hard-to-abate sectors such as cement and steel manufacturing and the need for innovative solutions – including carbon capture and storage – to help tackle their emissions profile.
Unfortunately, but unsurprisingly, Gates has faced criticism for the article. He’s been accused of “quiet quitting” on climate change and abandoning the quest to reduce emissions.
I don’t think that’s the case at all. Gates very clearly states in the first paragraph of his article that “climate change is serious.” He outlines considerable recent progress on decarbonisation (the 40% reduction in projected future emissions achieved over the past 10 years) and advocates for a combination of technology, artificial intelligence and smart people continuing to make a dent in emissions trajectories.
Gates also poses a very important question: if the world achieves all its climate targets in the next 30 years, but disease, famine and economic disadvantage remain prevalent, how much of a success would that really be?
A more equitable future for Asia
It’s a question that is highly relevant to Asia, where hundreds of millions of people lack access to clean cooking fuels and reliable electricity and GDP per capita in many nations sits well below the global average.
Stable, affordable and accessible energy will be a prerequisite for economic development that lifts families, communities and countries out of poverty over the next few decades.
We should not stop finding ways to avoid emissions and decarbonise energy systems in Asia but our approach must also be realistic and take into account the human value of economic growth. It should be accepted that energy profiles and pathways in Asia will vary by country and be quite different to other parts of the world.
More than half of Asia’s electricity still comes from coal, which will have a larger and longer-lasting role in this region than in western economies. Nuclear power will be a practical option for some Asian nations but out of reach for others. Hydropower will retain relevance and geothermal options will be explored. The rollout of solar and wind power will continue at pace, but challenges with intermittency, land availability, cost and integration into grids will not disappear.
Natural gas will be central to the global energy transition but particularly critical for Asia. Gas provides a much-lower emission alternative to coal that offsets intermittent renewable generation and supports increased penetration of solar and wind.
Recognising the value of natural gas
The importance of gas was underline in late October by statements from both the G7 and the Economic Leaders of APEC. The Call To Action on Enhancing Energy Security issued after the G7 Energy and Environment Ministers meeting in Canada stated that “we are encouraged that the natural gas industry within G7 nations contributes to energy security.”, while the APEC Leaders’ Gyeongju Declaration recognised “the important role that natural gas and LNG can play in providing sustainable, secure, affordable and reliable energy as well as flexibilities in our respective energy systems.”
The reference to LNG is key because Asia lacks regional gas resources to be self-sufficient. Stable, dependable LNG supply from Australia, the US and the Middle East is vital not only for established buyers like Japan and South Korea but fast-growing economies in South and Southeast Asia that are seeking to reduce their current reliance on coal.
The Philippines and Vietnam are two notable examples of countries aiming to transform their energy systems and sustain strong economic growth by making gas their primary source of baseload power.
In stark contrast to activist claims, LNG used in Asia is much cleaner than coal. Detailed analysis from S&P Global Commodity Insights found that LNG had 47% lower average lifecycle carbon intensity than coal being burned in Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam.
For every tonne of CO2 emitted in producing and shipping LNG to these countries, more than three tonnes of lifecycle emissions are avoided when it replaces coal in power generation.
This powerful data point illustrates the ability of gas to drive decarbonisation and underpins a compelling case for major LNG producers continuing to meet Asia’s growing needs.
It’s a case that should be taken seriously by governments of gas-exporting nations and also collaborative forums like COP.
As Bill Gates points out, leaving energy resources in the ground doesn’t benefit countries striving to narrow the gap on economic disparity.
Paul Everingham was CEO of the Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA) from September 2022 to June 2026. ANGEA works with governments, industries and communities in Asia, providing affordable solutions that promote energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation.
