Asia has an opportunity to make significant inroads into coal phaseout over the next 10 years – but this will require a pragmatic approach that balances emissions reduction, affordability and the need for reliable energy.
That was the view presented by panelists at the recent Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA) webinar: Pathway to Accelerate Power Sector Emissions in Asia.
Building on the S&P Global Commodity Insights study of the same name, the webinar featured introductions from ANGEA CEO Paul Everingham; project chair and Woodside Energy Head of Climate Strategy and Engagement, Gareth Wright; and S&P Global Commodity Insights Director of Energy Transition Consulting APAC, Allen Chan.
The panel session that followed was highly insightful, with Hiroshi Hashimoto (Senior Fellow, LNG and Gas Institute of Energy Economics, Japan) and Dr Jhud Aberilla (Lead Researcher, Philippine Gas Policy Development Project 3) joining to provide valuable perspectives from their respective countries.
The discussion expanded on key study findings, notably that a balanced approach to phasing out coal – with increased use of LNG supporting growth in renewables – would allow Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam to significantly reduce emissions from power generation with only comparatively modest cost increases.
The analysis found that such a balanced approach could cut power sector emissions by 33-38% by 2035, with just 8-16% additional investment in energy systems.
Read on for more highlights from the webinar, including video from the panel Q&A.
Allen Chan on how the S&P Global analysis differed from other energy transition studies:
“There are numerous options to replace coal and many, many permutations on how fast you deploy them, in what combination and what end target to aim for. How we have tried to address this study is to define plausible boundaries and focus on what is feasible. The boundaries include the 10-year time frame, looking at what can be done now to achieve emissions reductions, and system reliability – reserve margin is a key boundary condition – it’s unrealistic to end up with a system that’s completely unreliable. We focused on scalable and feasible options within the timeframe, which is affected to a large extent by the context in different countries. And then we applied our technology-agnostic approach, to look at what are the most economic of the viable options within the time frame.
The complexity of this study also extends to the unique circumstances of each country – resource availability, their starting point, and their current policy and goals. Finally, we needed to find the right metrics to articulate the tradeoff. Notionally, I think many people understand that there’s going to be a tradeoff between achieving emissions reduction and the capital cost investment required to do it. But how do we actually quantify and compare between different pathways? What we have done is consider overall system costs and combine that with the boundaries we put into our analysis to come up with something that not only compares emissions reduction and affordability but also integrates considerations around reliability and feasibility to various countries.”
Hiroshi Hashimoto on the study’s intersection with Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan, published earlier in 2025
“Japan renews its Strategic Energy Plan every three to four years, and the latest one maintains safety, energy security, economic efficiency and environment as core principles – although this time more emphasis is placed on energy security. One of the key features of the latest plan is stepped up importance of LNG. It provides multiple figures for 2040 of around 60 million tonnes per annum in the basic scenarios. That is almost the same level as today – last year Japan imported 66 million tonnes. But the latest plan also has alternative scenarios, which includes LNG imports of 74 million tonnes per year. While more renewable energy sources and energy savings are assumed in future scenarios, thermal power generation is assumed to maintain its important role in 2040 as part of a balanced mix of power generation – albeit at a significantly lower share of power generation of 40% compared to around 70% today. Inefficient coal fired power generation should be gradually retired, while LNG should maintain a key role, both for base load and as a supplement to renewables. A good combination of renewables and LNG is important in the Strategic Energy Plan. Demand for coal in the primary energy supply in volume terms is expected to decrease by more than 60% [to 2040], while demand for LNG is expected to decrease only slightly or keep at the same level. It means that relatively stable supply of LNG enables steady retirement of inefficient coal plants.”
Dr Jhud Aberilla on the development of the policy and regulatory environment around LNG in the Philippines.
“To address the technical gaps in regulation of a growing downstream LNG industry, the Gas Policy Development Project (GPDP) has been working closely with the Philippine Department of Energy to build its human resource capacity to try to promote investment and to identify potential sustainability risk. In terms of improving the ease of doing business, the GPDP has worked with regulatory agencies to draft codes of standard practice for the facilities along the downstream LNG supply chain – from terminals to regasification, to distribution and storage. Some examples here would be a third-party access code for a distribution network and an integrated inspection and monitoring manual for the different facilities. Part of our work is also to explore the sustainability issues of LNG development. For example, we did a market study on the potential transition from diesel and other conventional fuels in industrial parks into LNG and we also looked at what the expected environmental cost and benefits are by developing LNG facilities, especially in coastal areas. We hope that we have given valuable insights to inform policy making and investment planning for the shift towards lower carbon energy systems, where LNG is indeed recognised as better than coal. There is an opportunity for LNG to support emissions reduction, but in the Philippines price volatility and the substantial capital investment required for this conversion still pose some notable challenges. We will see how the Philippine government takes these findings into account to incentivise gas power generation without compromising on commitments to climate action and sustainable development.”
Gareth Wright on the ongoing role for Australia as a trusted and reliable source of LNG for Asia
“LNG supply nations, including Australia, have a unique opportunity to contribute to progress on global decarbonisation, and that means not only sustaining but expanding LNG production. Sufficient supply of LNG will be one of the key factors in the ability for the focus countries, and even those more broadly in Asia, to pursue the balanced case decarbonisation pathways that [are described in the S&P global study]. It’s important to think about it from the point of view of systems decarbonisation, as opposed to national, myopic perspectives. With LNG being 47% average lower life cycle carbon intensity compared to coal, LNG exports can certainly enable immediate emissions reductions across Asia while supporting renewable energy integration and expansion.”
The Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA) works with governments, industries and communities in Asia, providing affordable solutions that promote energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation.
