The recent COP30 and the IMO Shipping Net Zero Framework conferences were further examples of the difficulties with a consensus-based approach to climate action. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is finally becoming more realistic in its World Energy Outlook projections, supporting progress at COP30 on funding for climate adaptation in developing nations. In the latest edition of The Energy Diary, Neil Theobald looks at the challenging intersection of climate ambition and energy reality.
COP30 in Belem Brazil is over, a decade after the Paris Agreement and against the backdrop of a turbulent geopolitical landscape. This one was billed as the “Implementation COP”. Let’s look at how it went…
In summary, outcomes at COP30 were limited. The controversial financial targets set in Baku – the “Finance COP” – of $300 billion per year of support from the developed to the developing world have not been met and even these targets were seen as well below what was necessary. Reports indicate that only a third of the funding has been made available, but there was at least a welcome rebalancing of emphasis, specifically tripling finance for climate adaptation measures to $120 billion, as part of the larger amount.
One of the most disappointing outcomes was in efforts to reduce methane emissions. Given the outsize impact of methane on warming potential and the relatively low-cost of the technology required to significantly reduce methane leakage, this continues to be a missed opportunity. Nevertheless, this remains one of the most straightforward ways to reduce impacts.
There was very limited progress on the territorial basis for targets. Given the global nature of the climate challenge, there needs to be some mechanism to account for imported emissions into economies that have deindustrialised. Using the UK as an example, manufacturing has been run down but consumption of manufactured goods remains very high. The emissions from these imports are simply being offshored into the global supply chain and the UK’s headline progress on emissions reduction masks the real story. While initiatives such as the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism seek to account for this and level the playing field, it is not widely supported outside Europe and implementation remains problematic.
The international carbon market rules, agreed at COP29, did make some limited progress. However, much remains to be done around the practicalities of implementation.
Updates to Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) were submitted by 108 countries representing 71% of global emissions. According to the UN Emissions GAP Report 2025, the new targets, if fully implemented, will only slightly lower global temperature increases over the course of this century and indicate rises of 2.3 – 2.5°C by 2100, compared to 2.6 – 3.1 °C under the previous NDCs. Indeed, the UN reports that the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will make even this improvement unlikely.
In summary, while some incremental progress was made at COP30, the trajectory required for ambitious targets – such as limiting temperature increases to 1.5°C by the end of the century – is essentially out of reach.
During the conference, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its flagship World Energy Outlook 2025. This uses a scenario-based approach to illustrate how the energy system might develop under a range of assumptions. Two of the scenarios use existing policy settings or pledges to look forward. The third takes a target of net zero in 2050 and works backwards to show the types of policies that would be required to achieve this.
This fundamental difference in the basis of the scenarios is often overlooked in reporting and analysis, and it is significant that the IEA reinstated a more conservative scenario this year called Current Policies that acknowledges the likelihood of a slower reduction of fossil fuel use. Under Current Policies, natural gas usage increases by 30% between now and 2050, while even the more aggressive Stated Policies case has natural gas increasing by 10% in the same timeframe.
Around the same time, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) deferred a decision on its Net Zero Framework for the decarbonisation of heavy shipping for 12 months while more work was done to provide members with a better-defined framework for the scheme’s operation.
Once again, the outcomes from two consensus-based global forums have been less than many hoped for. There was much criticism that the final COP30 communiqué did not include a statement regarding the phase-out of fossil fuels, but this is consistent with the IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 report which shows increasing, not decreasing, natural gas use through 2050.
The reality is that fossil fuels, which in 2000 represented 86% of the total energy mix, still represened over 80% in 2024 after 25 years and trillions of dollars of climate action. Fossil fuels will be the backbone of the global energy system for the foreseeable future and more should be done around adaptation to climate change.
In this area at least, COP30 made some progress.
Neil Theobald has more than 40 years’ experience in the oil and gas industry, including 17 years at Chevron, where he was Vice President, Global LNG, Gas Supply & Trading. He has been a Senior Advisor to the Asia Natural Gas & Energy Association (ANGEA) since 2021.
ANGEA works with works governments, industries and communities in Asia, providing affordable solutions that promote energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation.
Main photo via COP30.
