As global energy decision makers and thousands of delegates prepare to travel to Azerbaijan for COP29, the need for pragmatic conversations about energy has never been stronger.
This will be the third successive COP held against the backdrop of record coal use. Driven primarily by demand for power generation in Asia, coal consumption is set to reach another all-time high in 2024, eclipsing the previous marks set in 2023 and 2022.
The world is at a critical juncture when it comes to the quest to reduce emissions. Something has to give.
It’s not reasonable to expect emerging Asian nations to forego economic growth that will help deliver hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.
Equally, it’s not practical to think these economies can suddenly make an enormous leap from being reliant on coal to having their growth underpinned by solar and wind power.
The reasons why much of Asia uses coal are quite simple: it’s familiar, inexpensive and, compared with other energy sources, abundantly available. Coal provides security for energy systems that are being stretched by rapidly growing demand.
Not surprisingly, when developing nations consider alternative sources of energy – with the goal of reducing emissions from power generation – they look for similar attributes. They want energy they can afford, and which ensures their electricity supply remains stable.
The logical choice for many countries in Asia as a much cleaner burning alternative to coal is natural gas.
Energy planning around Asia reflects this. Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia are among the fast-growing, currently coal-dependent nations which forecast much bigger future roles for gas as part of their ambitions to decarbonise.
However, these countries – like Asia more broadly – will rely on LNG produced outside the region to meet their gas demand.
LNG has not always been affordable or available to them, particularly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With uncertainty around future production from two major exporters in the US and Australia, developing nations will understandably wonder whether planning to use more gas will steer them towards energy solutions that are more expensive and where supply is not assured.
They may feel that sticking with coal is the simplest way forward.
This is where discussions at COP can have a very meaningful impact. The annual climate change gathering represents an opportunity to send a much clearer message – to emerging Asia, LNG-exporting nations and many other stakeholders – that natural gas is an essential part of the global energy transition, as a reliable source of energy that supports growing investment in renewable energy and real progress towards emissions reduction targets.
The final Global Stocktake text from COP28 in Dubai noted that “transitional fuels can play a role in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security.” Given the event’s focus on “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power” it’s hard to envision a fuel that better fits this description than natural gas.
Not mentioning gas by name in the COP28 communique only plays into the impractical notion that fossil fuels, which currently account for more than 80 per cent of global energy, will not be required in decades to come. It is also at odds with the widely accepted principle that the energy transition will vary depending on each country’s circumstances.
How close the world can get to net zero by 2050 remains to be seen. I’m certain we will advance much further along the pathway if emerging Asia can access the gas and LNG it needs to switch out coal-fired power.
Positive signals from COP and other multilateral climate forums will give nations in Asia the confidence needed to continue planning for gas-fuelled transformations of their energy systems.
Next week in Baku would be an ideal place to get this started.
Paul Everingham was CEO of the Asia Natural Gas and Energy Association (ANGEA) from September 2022 to June 2026. ANGEA works with governments, industries and communities in Asia, providing affordable solutions that promote energy security, economic growth and decarbonisation.
This article originally appeared in Nikkei Asia on November 8, 2024.
